Impact of the WHO "best buys" for alcohol policy on consumption and health in the Baltic countries and Poland 2000-2020.

Alcohol use is a major risk factor for burden of disease. This narrative review aims to document the effects of major alcohol control policies, in particular taxation increases and availability restrictions in the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) between 2000 and 2020. These measures have been successful in curbing alcohol sales, in general without increasing consumption of alcoholic beverages from unrecorded sources; although for more recent changes this may have been partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, findings from time-series analyses suggest improved health, measured as reductions in all-cause and alcohol-attributable mortality, as well as narrowing absolute mortality inequalities between lower and higher educated groups. For most outcomes, there were sex differences observed, with alcohol control policies more strongly affecting males. In contrast to this successful path, alcohol control policies were mostly dismantled in the neighbouring country of Poland, resulting in a rising death toll due to liver cirrhosis and other alcohol-attributable deaths. The natural experiment in this region of high-income European countries with high consumption levels highlights the importance of effective alcohol control policies for improving population health.

A longitudinal investigation of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on 2SLGBTQ+ youth experiencing homelessness.

INTRODUCTION: The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on various dimensions of wellbeing among 2SLGBTQ+ youth experiencing homelessness over a 12-month period during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: 2SLGBTQ+ youth (recruited using a convenience sampling method) participated in three online surveys to assess mental health (depression, anxiety, suicidality), substance and alcohol use, health care access, and violence for 12-months between 2021-2022. Quantitative data analysis included non-parametric one-sample proportion tests, paired t-test and McNemar's test. Longitudinal data collected across all three timepoints were treated as paired data and compared to baseline data using non-parametric exact multinomial tests, and if significant, followed by pairwise post-hoc exact binomial tests. For the purposes of analysis, participants were grouped according to their baseline survey based on pandemic waves and public health restrictions. RESULTS: 2SLGBTQ+ youth experiencing homelessness (n = 87) reported high rates of mental health challenges, including anxiety and depression, over 12-months during the pandemic. Youth participants reported experiencing poor mental health during the early waves of the pandemic, with improvements to their mental health throughout the pandemic; however, results were not statistically significant. Likewise, participants experienced reduced access to mental health care during the early waves of the pandemic but mental health care access increased for youth throughout the pandemic. CONCLUSION: Study results showed high rates of mental health issues among 2SLGBTQ+ youth, but reduced access to mental health care, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings highlight the need for 2SLGBTQ+ inclusive and affirming mental health care and services to address social and mental health issues that have been exacerbated by the pandemic.

Types of suicide pacts: a comparative analysis using the National Violent Death Reporting System.

Introduction: Suicide pacts are lethal acts of violence involving multiple decedents. No study has ever compared suicide pact types using a large sample, limiting our understanding of this rare but serious phenomenon. The objective of the current study was to describe suicide pacts in the United States and empirically compare suicide pacts wherein all decedents died by self-harm with those that involved assisted suicide. Methods: Using restricted access incident-level data from the National Violent Death Reporting System, we identified 277 suicide pact incidents (225 suicide pacts wherein all decedents died by self-harm and 52 suicide pacts wherein one pact member died by assisted suicide). The two suicide pact types were compared for demographics, pact characteristics, and preceding circumstances. Results: Compared with decedents of suicide pacts involving assisted suicide, decedents of suicide pacts wherein both members died by self-harm had significantly lower odds of being non-white, Hispanic or non-Hispanic (OR = 0.33, 95%CI: 0.18, 0.64), using an active method of suicide (i.e., ICD-10 codes X70-X83) (OR = 0.01, 95%CI: <0.01, 0.04), and experiencing interpersonal relationship problems (OR = 0.48, 95%CI: 0.27, 0.87) and a crisis within two weeks of their death (OR = 0.58, 95%CI: 0.36, 0.97), but greater odds of preceding physical health problems (OR = 3.25, 95%CI: 1.84, 6.04). Discussion: Overall, our findings indicate that suicide pacts wherein all decedents died by self-harm and suicide pacts that involved an assisted suicide appear to have largely distinct profiles. While further research is required, the discrete characteristics of these two types of suicide pacts have important implications for prevention.

Association Between Acute Alcohol Use and Firearm-Involved Suicide in the United States.

Importance: Firearms are the method of suicide used most often in the US. Acute alcohol use is associated with an increased risk of suicide by firearm. However, the dose-response association between acute alcohol use and the probability of using a firearm as the method of suicide is unknown. Objective: To evaluate the association between the amount of alcohol consumed and the probability of using a firearm as the method of suicide. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used mortality data from the US National Violent Death Reporting System on suicide decedents aged 18 years or older with a positive blood alcohol concentration (BAC; ie, ≥0.01 g/dL). Statistical analysis was performed from January 2003 to December 2020. Exposure: Acute alcohol use, ascertained via postmortem toxicologic examination. Main Outcomes and Measures: Probability of using a firearm as the method of suicide compared with all other methods of suicide. Results: The study included 45 959 male suicide decedents (mean [SD] age, 42.6 [14.8] years) and 12 136 female suicide decedents (mean [SD] age, 44.2 [13.8] years) with a positive BAC; of those, 24 720 male decedents (53.8%) and 3599 female decedents (29.7%) used a firearm as the method of suicide. The probability of using a firearm as the method of suicide when alcohol is consumed was higher for male decedents, with the probability starting at just below 0.50 and increasing to approximately 0.75. In contrast, for female decedents, the probability began at just above 0.30 and increased to approximately 0.55. For both male and female decedents, the dose-response curves were an inverted U shape; as BAC increased, the probability of firearm-involved suicide initially increased and then decreased at very high BACs (approximately 0.40 g/dL for male decedents and approximately 0.30 g/dL for female decedents; these BACs were present among only a small percentage of alcohol-involved suicides: male decedents, 589 [1.3%]; female decedents, 754 [6.2%]). Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study of suicide decedents who had consumed alcohol prior to their death suggests that, as alcohol consumption increased, the probability of a firearm-involved suicide increased until a certain BAC, at which point the probability started to decrease.

Impact of alcohol control policy on hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality rates in Lithuania: An interrupted time series analysis. / Impacto de políticas de control de alcohol en las tasas de mortalidad por ictus hemorrágico e isquémico en Lituania: Análisis de series temporales interrumpidas.

Given the causal impact of alcohol use on stroke, alcohol control policies should presumably reduce stroke mortality rates. This study aimed to test the impact of three major Lithuanian alcohol control policies implemented in 2008, 2017 and 2018 on sex- and stroke subtype-specific mortality rates, among individuals 15+ years-old. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed for each sex- and stroke subtype-specific group to identify timepoints corresponding with significant changes in mortality rate trends. To estimate the impact of each policy, interrupted time series analyses using a generalized additive mixed model were performed on monthly sex- and stroke subtype-specific age-standardized mortality rates from January 2001-December 2018. Significant average annual percent decreases were found for all sex- and stroke subtype-specific mortality rate trends. The alcohol control policies were most impactful on ischemic stroke mortality rates among women. The 2008 policy was followed by a positive level change of 4,498 ischemic stroke deaths per 100,000 women and a negative monthly slope change of -0.048 ischemic stroke deaths per 100,000 women. Both the 2017 and 2018 policy enactment timepoints coincided with a significant negative level change for ischemic stroke mortality rates among women, at -0.901 deaths and -1.431 deaths per 100,000 population, respectively. Hemorrhagic stroke mortality among men was not affected by any of the policies, and hemorrhagic stroke mortality among women and ischemic stroke mortality among men were only associated with the 2008 policy. Our study findings suggest that the impact of alcohol control policies on stroke mortality may vary by sex and subtype.

Dado el impacto del alcohol en los ictus, las políticas de control de alcohol deberían reducir las tasas de mortalidad. Nuestro objetivo fue demostrar el impacto de tres importantes políticas lituanas implementadas en 2008, 2017 y 2018 en las tasas de mortalidad específicas por subtipo de ictus y sexo, en mayores de 15 años. Se realizaron análisis de regresión «joinpoint¼ para identificar los cambios de tendencia. Para estimar el impacto, se realizaron análisis de series temporales interrumpidas utilizando un modelo mixto aditivo generalizado en las tasas mensuales estandarizadas por edad, desde enero 2001 hasta diciembre 2018. Se encontraron disminuciones porcentuales anuales promedio significativas en ambos subtipos de ictus y por sexo. Las políticas tuvieron un mayor impacto en las tasas de mortalidad por ictus isquémico en mujeres. Posterior a la política del 2008, ocurrió un cambio positivo de 4,498 muertes por ictus isquémico por 100 000 mujeres y un cambio de pendiente mensual negativo de -0,048 muertes por ictus isquémico por 100 000 mujeres. Posterior a las políticas de 2017 y 2018, hubo un cambio de tendencia negativo significativo para la mortalidad por ictus isquémico en mujeres, de -0.901 muertes y -1.431 muertes por 100 000 habitantes, respectivamente. La mortalidad por ictus hemorrágico en hombres no se vio afectada, y la mortalidad por ictus hemorrágico en mujeres y por ictus isquémico en hombres solo se vio afectada por la política del 2008. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que el impacto de las políticas en la mortalidad por ictus puede variar según sexo y subtipo.

Using Direct and Indirect Estimates for Alcohol-Attributable Mortality: A Modelling Study Using the Example of Lithuania.

INTRODUCTION: Comparative risk assessments (CRAs) for alcohol use are based on indirect estimates of attributable harm, and usually combine country-specific exposure estimates and global risk relations derived from meta-analyses. CRAs for Eastern European countries, such as Lithuania, base their risk relations not on global risk relations, but on a large Russian cohort study. The availability of a direct estimate of alcohol-attributable mortality following the 2017 implementation of a large increase in alcohol excise taxes in Lithuania has allowed a comparison of these indirect estimates with a country-specific gold standard. METHODS: A statistical modelling study compared direct (predictions based on a time-series methodology) and indirect (predictions based on an attributable-fraction methodology) estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality before and after a large increase in alcohol excise taxes in Lithuania. Specifically, Russia-specific versus global relative risks were compared against the gold standard of time-series based predictions. RESULTS: Compared to direct estimates, indirect estimates markedly underestimated the reduction of alcohol-attributable mortality 12 months post intervention by at least 63%. While both of the indirect estimates differed markedly from the direct estimates, the Russia-specific estimates were closer to the direct estimates, primarily due to higher estimates for alcohol-attributable cardiovascular mortality. DISCUSSION: As all indirect estimates were markedly lower than direct estimates, current overall relative risks and price elasticities should be re-evaluated. In particular, global estimates should be replaced by new regional estimates based on cohort studies.

A comparative analysis of solitary suicides, suicides following homicide, and suicide pacts using the National Violent Death Reporting System.

BACKGROUND: Incidents of suicide can be categorized into three main types: solitary suicides, suicides following homicide, and suicide pacts. Although these three suicide incidents vary by definition, no studies to-date have simultaneously examined and compared them for potential differences. The objective of the current study was to empirically and descriptively compare solitary suicides, suicides following homicide, and suicide pacts in the United States. METHODS: Restricted-access data from the National Violent Death Report System for 2003-2019 for 262,679 solitary suicides, 4,352 suicides following homicide, and 450 suicide pacts were used. Pairwise comparisons of the three suicide incident types were made for demographic factors, method of suicide, preceding circumstances, mental health status, and toxicology findings. RESULTS: Solitary suicides, suicides following homicide, and suicide pacts have distinct profiles, with statistically significant (p < 0.05) differences across all pairwise comparisons of sex, race, ethnicity, marital status, education, method of suicide, financial problems, interpersonal relationship problems, physical health problems, mental health problems, mood disorders, suicide attempt history, and opiate use at the time of death. CONCLUSION: Despite sharing a few commonalities, solitary suicides, suicides following homicide, and suicide pacts represent distinct phenomena. Each of these suicide incident types likely have their own unique prevention pathways.

Classifying alcohol control policies enacted between 2000 and 2020 in Poland and the Baltic countries to model potential impact.

AIMS: The study's aim is to identify and classify the most important alcohol control policies in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and Poland between 2000 and 2020. METHODS: Policy analysis of Baltic countries and Poland, predicting potential policy impact on alcohol consumption, all-cause mortality and alcohol-attributable hospitalizations was discussed. RESULTS: All Baltic countries implemented stringent availability restrictions on off-premises trading hours and different degrees of taxation increases to reduce the affordability of alcoholic beverages, as well as various degrees of bans on alcohol marketing. In contrast, Poland implemented few excise taxation increases or availability restrictions and, in fact, reduced stipulations on prior marketing bans. CONCLUSIONS: This classification of alcohol control policies in the Baltic countries and Poland provides a basis for future modeling of the impact of implementing effective alcohol control policies (Baltic countries), as well as the effects of loosening such policies (Poland).

Do alcohol control policies have the predicted effects on consumption? An analysis of the Baltic countries and Poland 2000-2020.

BACKGROUND: Many population-based alcohol control policies are postulated to work via changes in adult alcohol per capita consumption (APC). However, since APC is usually assessed on a yearly basis, often there are not enough data to conduct interrupted time-series or other controlled analyses. The current dataset, with 21 years of observation from four countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland), had sufficient power to test for average effects and potential interactions of the World Health Organization's (WHO) three "best buys" for alcohol control: taxation increases leading to a decrease in affordability; reduced availability (via a decrease in opening hours of at least 20 %); and advertising and marketing restrictions. We postulated that the former two would have immediate effects, while the latter would have mid- to long-term effects. METHODS: Linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Taxation increases and availability reductions in all countries were associated with an average reduction in APC of 0.83 litres (ℓ) of pure alcohol per year (95 % confidence interval: -1.21 ℓ, -0.41 ℓ) in the same year, with no significant differences between countries. Restrictions on advertising and/or marketing had no significant immediate associations with APC (average effect 0.04 ℓ per year; 95 % confidence interval: -0.65 ℓ, 0.73 ℓ). Several sensitivity analyses corroborated these main results. CONCLUSIONS: The WHO "best buy" alcohol control policies of taxation increases and availability restrictions worked as postulated in these four northeastern European Union countries.

The temporal trend of cause-specific mortality: comparing Estonia and Lithuania, 2001 - 2019.

BACKGROUND: Despite being two Baltic countries with similar histories, Estonia and Lithuania have diverged in life expectancy trends in recent years. We investigated this divergence by comparing cause-specific mortality trends. METHODS: We obtained yearly mortality data for individuals 20 + years of age from 2001-2019 (19 years worth of data) through Statistics Lithuania, the Lithuanian Institute for Hygiene, and the National Institute for Health Development (Estonia). Using ICD-10 codes, we analyzed all-cause mortality rates and created eight major disease categories: ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, all other cardiovascular disease, cancers (neoplasms), digestive diseases, self-harm and interpersonal violence, unintentional injuries and related conditions, and other mortality (deaths per 100,000 population). We used joinpoint regression analysis, and analyzed the proportional contribution of each category to all-cause mortality. RESULTS: There was a steeper decline in all-cause mortality in Estonia (average annual percent change, AAPC = -2.55%, 95% CI: [-2.91%, -2.20%], P < .001) as compared to Lithuania (AAPC = -1.26%, 95% CI: [-2.18%, -0.57%], P = .001). For ischemic heart disease mortality Estonia exhibited a relatively larger decline over the 19-year period (AAPC = -6.61%, 95% CI: [-7.02%, -6.21%], P < .001) as compared to Lithuania (AAPC = -2.23%, 95% CI: [-3.40%, -1.04%], P < .001). CONCLUSION: Estonia and Lithuania showed distinct mortality trends and distributions of major disease categories. Our findings highlight the role of ischemic heart disease mortality. Differences in public health care, management and prevention of ischemic heart disease, alcohol control policies may explain these differences.

Predicting the Impact of Alcohol Taxation Increases on Mortality-A Comparison of Different Estimation Techniques.

AIMS: To examine how standard analytical approaches to model mortality outcomes of alcohol use compare to the true results using the impact of the March 2017 alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania on all-cause mortality as an example. METHODS: Four methodologies were used: two direct methodologies: (a) interrupted time-series on mortality and (b) comparing predictions based on time-series modeling with the real number of deaths for the year following the implementation of the tax increase; and two indirect methodologies: (c) combining a regression-based estimate for the impact of taxation on alcohol consumption with attributable-fraction methodology and (d) using price elasticities from meta-analyses to estimate the impact on alcohol consumption before applying attributable-fraction methodology. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: While all methodologies estimated reductions in all-cause mortality, especially for men, there was substantial variability in the level of mortality reductions predicted. The indirect methodologies had lower predictions as the meta-analyses on elasticities and risk relations seem to underestimate the true values for Lithuania. Directly estimated effects of taxation based on the actual mortalities seem to best represent the true reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality. A significant increase in alcohol excise taxation had a marked impact on all-cause mortality in Lithuania.

Cardiovascular diseases mortality and alcohol control policy in Lithuania: exploring a possible link.

BACKGROUND: Lithuania possesses one of the highest alcohol per capita consumption and has previously implemented alcohol control policies to reduce the alcohol-attributable burden. The aim of this study was to investigate Lithuanian cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rate trends between 2001 and 2018 and to explore a possible link between CVD mortality rate and alcohol control policy implementation. METHODS: Lithuanian population mortality and alcohol consumption data for 2001-2018 were obtained from Statistics Lithuania and The State Register of Death Cases and Their Causes, Institute of Hygiene. Sex-specific CVD mortality rates were directly standardized to the European standard population by five-year age groups and categorized according to the ICD-10 codes for all CVDs (I00-I99), ischemic heart disease (IHD) (I20-I25), cerebrovascular diseases (I60-I69) and alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM) (I42.6). Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to identify points of inflection to explore their alignment with five selected alcohol policy enactments. RESULTS: Overall, the 2001-2018 yearly mortality rates for all CVDs significantly decreased on average by - 1.6% (95% CI -2.0, - 1.2%) among men and - 2.1% (95% CI -2.5, - 1.8%) among women. Yearly changes in all CVDs, IHD, cerebrovascular diseases and ACM mortality rates were insignificant prior to their respective critical year points in 2006, 2005, 2008 and 2007, but significantly decreased afterwards by an average of - 2.4% (95% CI -2.7, - 2.0%), - 1.6% (95% CI -2.1, - 1.1%), - 1.2% (95 CI -1.7, - 0.6%) and - 4.5% (95% CI -7.3, - 1.6%) among men, and by - 2.7% (95% CI -3.0, - 2.3%), - 2.0% (95% CI -2.6, - 1.4%), - 1.8% (95% CI 2.4, - 1.3%) and - 6.6% (95% CI -10.7, - 2.2%) among women, respectively. The changes in the mortality rate trends for all CVDs, IHD, cerebrovascular diseases and especially ACM coincided with alcohol policies enacted on the January 1, 2008, January 1, 2009, April 1, 2014 and March 1, 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Yearly mortality rates for all CVDs, IHD, cerebrovascular diseases and ACM have declined in Lithuania between 2001 and 2018, and declining trends were more prominent in women than in men. Among the ICD-10 CVD categories investigated, the points of inflection identified for the ACM mortality rate trend coincided best with the selected alcohol policy enactment dates.

Alcohol and health in Central and Eastern European Union countries - status quo and alcohol policy options.

The aim of this narrative review is to give an overview of alcohol consumption, attributable health harm, and potential alcohol control policies to reduce this harm in five Central and Eastern European Union countries: Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. The overall level of alcohol consumption was high, with the two highest-consuming countries in the world being situated in Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Latvia), and all five of these countries being in the top 15% of World Health Organization member states with respect to consumption. Accordingly, alcohol-attributable health harm was high. Implementation of alcohol control policies could be improved, especially the implementation of pricing policies such as taxation increases. A moderate increase of the tax share on alcohol could result in thousands of lives being saved in Central and Eastern Europe in a single year. As taxation increases not only save lives, but also increase state revenue, the implementation of this alcohol control measure should be made a priority.